Showing 1 - 10 of 3,247
Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343348
The German minimum wage was introduced in January 2015. This paper investigates the short-term macroeconomic impacts of its introduction. Therefore, an estimated VAR/VECM is used to perform forecasts that are interpreted as counterfactual to the introduction of the minimum wage and compared to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012140627
The international development debate is increasingly referring to the notion of the "social contract" - often, however, without a clear definition of the term and its implications. We therefore make a suggestion for measuring at least some elements of social contracts in order to make it easier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014633307
Wir zeigen in diesem Artikel, dass der empirisch gemessene Multiplikatoreffekt von Fiskalpolitik für Deutschland zwar statistisch signifikant, aber nur von geringer Größe ist. So führt z.B. eine Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben um 1 Euro innerhalb des ersten Jahres zu einem positiven Effekt von...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014522639
The study analyses the dynamics and the structure of Ukraine's public finances. It assesses the medium-term impact of fiscal austerity 2014-2016, examines fiscal sustainability and estimates further fiscal adjustment efforts. It evaluates the economic and social implications of current fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100153
This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604886
This note shows that the Italian Mini BOTs proposed in 2019 bore the potential neither to become Italian legal tender nor to practically increase Italian government debt, but to practically cause a mere reduction in taxation and thence in government spending or transfers. Since the Eurozone...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015165683
The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605312
This paper explores the impact of wartime military spending on postwar U.S. fiscal policy, with a particular focus on the "ratchet effect" in taxes and transfers. Through econometric analysis, we investigate how changes in defense spending during and after conflicts shape long-term federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015404705
This study provides new causal evidence for the impact of a large-scale natural disaster on local economic activity in Iran using nighttime light intensity. We apply the synthetic control method (SCM) and nighttime light (NTL) data from 1992 to 2020 for 31 provinces and 429 counties to study the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377476