Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...

We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecast-ing. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the uni-variate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the esti-mated models do not do a...

Die Autoren untersuchen im vorliegenden Artikel den Einfluss der zunehmenden Nutzung von Social Media auf das Personalmanagement. Dabei liegt der Fokus vor allem auf dem Bereich Employer Branding, weil die Veränderungen des Medienkonsums und Kommunikationsverhalten, die durch die Nutzung von...

Purpose: Beginning from the assumption that accrual accounting is useful in ensuring the high performance of management systems, this article investigates explanatory factors concerning the level of accrual accounting adoption in municipalities on the Indonesia island of Java....

Purpose - This paper aims to present a literature review of the most recent optimisation methods applied to Credit Scoring Models (CSMs). Design/methodology/approach The research methodology employed technical procedures based on bibliographic and exploratory analyses. A traditional...

This paper applies the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003) to a set of volatility models. A MCS is analogous to confidence interval of a parameter in the sense that the former contains the best forecasting model with a certain probability. The key to the MCS...

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of...

This study explores the forecasting of Major League Baseball game ticket sales and identifies important attendance predictors by means of random forests that are grown from classification and regression trees (CART) and conditional inference trees. Unlike previous studies that predict sport...

We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors. Subjects (n=44) are presented a series of 50/50 gambles that each involves a potential gain and a potential loss, and subjects can choose to either accept or reject a displayed...

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of...