Theory suggests a significant positive relationship in long-run equilibrium between net foreign assets (NFA) as a proportion of GDP and real exchange rates. Empirical tests have ignored two issues: the large variation in cross-country trade/GDP ratios, which is likely to induce substantial...

Global current account imbalances were a major subject of concern in the years before the recent financial crisis. It is shown that the expected (negative) equilibrium relationship between net foreign assets and the trade balance that had held in the previous twenty years appeared to break down...

Many currencies, especially those of countries with negative net foreign assets, tend to depreciate during times of financial turbulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the period 1/1997 - 6/2016, I show that the composition of net foreign assets matter for the exchange rate sensitivity to...

We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of the net exports variable. In addition to bringing a new approach (utilizing our measure of external imbalance suggested by Gourinchas and Rey) and data spanning a more...

International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the valuation channel of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country's external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation channel...

We investigate the role of budget balances, financial development and openness, in the evolution of global imbalances. Financial development or the lack thereof has received considerable attention as a possible contributing factor to the development of persistent and expanding current account...

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Using a gravity framework in an intertemporal context, we provide strong support for the hypothesis and we reconcile our results with...

Alarmed by the persistent and large US trade deficit vis-à-vis China and the rapidly swelling Chinese foreign exchange reserves, influential US policymakers are urging the Chinese authorities to allow a substantial appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB). This paper establishes that the arguments...

The present paper extends the Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) framework of current account imbalances by the oil exporting countries as a fourth region. It sets the stage for a variety of analysis that can be conducted within a four-region-setting that accounts for the importance of OPEC as a major...

this paper analyzes two effects which might have an important impact on a reduction of global external imbalances. These are valuation effects on the one hand and interest rate effects on the other hand. We use a four-region model that is based on the models by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) and...