A two-step generalized method of moments estimation procedure can be made robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in the data by using a nonparametric estimator of the optimal weighting matrix. This paper addresses the issue of choosing the corresponding smoothing parameter (or...

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior information about which conditioning instruments are weak or...

We introduce a new jackknife variance estimator for panel-data regressions. Our variance estimator can be motivated as the conventional leave-one-out jackknife variance estimator on a transformed space of the regressors and residuals using orthonormal trigonometric basis functions. We prove the...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which...

This work built on financial literature on rolling window Granger-causality testing (RWGCT) methodology, specifically expanding its early theme of speculative trading which emerged in 2009 following the food price crisis. Although many times driving the commodity prices in reality, the...

This paper finds that global temperature anomalies are characterised by (temporary) explosiveness, a statistical feature typically found in financial and commodity market data during episodes of extreme price increases. This finding dramatically illustrates the extent temperature changes have...

We develop methods to obtain optimal forecast under long memory in the presence of a discrete structural break based on different weighting schemes for the observations. We observe significant changes in the forecasts when long-range dependence is taken into account. Using Monte Carlo...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...

This paper studies large sample classical and Bayesian inference in a prototypical linear DSGE model and demonstrates that inference on the structural parameters based on a Gaussian likelihood is unaffected by departures from Gaussianity of the structural shocks. This surprising result is due to...