This paper compares two approaches to analyzing longitudinal discrete-time binary outcomes. Dynamic binary response models focus on state occupancy and typically specify low-order Markovian state dependence. Multi-spell duration models focus on transitions between states and typically allow for...

Predictions of whether newly unemployed individuals will become long-term unemployed are important for the planning and policy mix of unemployment insurance agencies. We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same...

Eine Reihe von Knappheitsindikatoren hierzulande gab in letzter Zeit einige Rätsel auf: In Berufen, in denen nach Massgabe der Indikatoren ein Überangebot an Stellensuchenden vorlag, bestand nach Auskunft von Stellenanbietern in Wirklichkeit Arbeitskräfteknappheit. Die vorliegende Studie...

This paper investigates the joint effect of local labor market conditions and individual differences on the duration of self-employment periods. Using register based, data the study focuses on previously unemployed business founders who have received public support to realize their...

We introduce a dynamic treatment to the mixed proportional hazard competing risks model and allow for selection on unobservables. Our model can e.g. be used to evaluate the effect of benefit sanctions on the transition rate out of unemployment when more than one exit risk is of interest....

This paper investigates the interrelated dynamics of employment, cohabitation and fertility for German women and men. Using a simultaneous hazards approach due to Lillard (1993), I estimate a five-equation model with unobserved heterogeneity. One of the contributions of this paper is to include...

This paper investigates how precisely short-term, job-search oriented training programs as opposed to long-term, human capital intensive training programs work. We evaluate and compare their effects on time until job entry, stability of employment, and earnings. Further, we examine the...

I expose the risk of false discoveries in the context of multiple treatment effects. A false discovery is a nonexistent effect that is falsely labeled as statistically significant by its individual t-value. Labeling nonexistent effects as statistically significant has wide-ranging academic and...

This paper studies a program that extends the maximum duration of unemployment benefits from 30 weeks to 209 weeks. Interestingly, this program is targeted to individuals aged 50 years or older, living in certain eligible regions in Austria. In the evaluation, I use sharp discontinuities in...

A competing risks model is a model for multiple durations that start at the same point of time for a given subject, where the subject is observed until the first duration is completed and one also observes which of the durations is completed first. This article gives an overview of the main...