We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 –...

We aim to give an overview of the state of the art of causal analysis of demographic issues related to morbidity and mortality. We will systematically introduce strategies to identify causal mechanisms, which are inherently linked to panel data from observational surveys and population...

Many contemporary studies find that married couples are more satisfied with life than unmarried people. However, whether marriage makes people more satisfied with life or whether more satisfied couples are more likely to marry remains a debated question. We reassess this relationship with panel...

In cases of non-compliance with a prescribed treatment, estimates of causal effects typically rely on instrumental variables. However, when participation is also misreported, this approach can be severely biased. We provide an instrumental variable method that researchers can use to identify the...

Some interventions or population attributes negate the effects of a treatment. This paper shows that incorporating these, what we call antidotal variables (AV), into a causal treatment effects analysis can with one cross-sectional regression identify the true causal effect, in addition to...

In my last post, I looked at the relation between economic growth and inflation. As per usual, the evidence didn’t sit well with mainstream economics. According to standard theory, there is a trade off between low inflation and high economic growth. The idea is that you can have one or the...