This paper addresses two important questions that have, so far, been studied separately in the literature. First, the paper aims at explaining the high volatility of long-term interest rates observed in the data, which is hard to replicate using standard macro models. Building a small-scale...

The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...

Two approaches are considered to incorporate judgment in DSGE models. First, Bayesian estimation indirectly imposes judgment via priors on model parameters, which are then mapped into a judgmental interest rate decision. Standard priors are shown to be associated with highly unrealistic...

Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...

In the present paper we propose a new method, the Penalized Adaptive Method (PAM), for a data driven detection of structural changes in sparse linear models. The method is able to allocate the longest homogeneous intervals over the data sample and simultaneously choose the most proper variables...

This study compares and contrasts the multiple characterizations of mean reversion in financial time series as regards the restrictions they imply. This is accomplished by translating them into statements about an alternative measure, the "Average Crossing Time" or ACT. We argue that the ACT...

We will investigate valuation of derivatives with payoff defined as a nonlinear though close to linear function of tradable underlying assets. Derivatives involving Libor or swap rates in arrears, i.e. rates paid in a wrong time, are a typical example. It is generally tempting to replace the...

Banks typically determine their capital levels by separately analysing credit and interest rate risk, but the interaction between the two is significant and potentially complex. We develop an integrated economic capital model for a banking book where all exposures are held to maturity. Our...

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range...

It is known that, when in the linear regression model there is a high degree of multicollinearity, the results obtained by using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method are unstable. As a solution to this situation, in this paper we present the raised method, the ridge method and the orthogonal...