This paper proposes a method for the welfare analysis of pay-as-you-go social security systems. We derive a formula for the welfare consequences of a permanent marginal change in the payroll tax rate that is valid under weak assumptions about the deep structure of the economy. Our approach...

We model the optimal reaction of a public PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex-ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules that mimic the pension systems observed in the real world. The...

In this paper we identify conditions under which the introduction of a pay-as-you-go social security system is ex-ante Pareto-improving in a stochastic overlapping generations economy with capital accumulation and land. We argue that these conditions are consistent with many calibrations of the...

This paper proposes a new method for welfare analysis of unfunded social security systems. Based on an overlapping generations model with endogenous labor supply, we derive a formula for the evaluation of existing pay-as-you-go social security systems that depends on impulse response functions...

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of...

This paper presents a dense summary of the most fundamental results on the issue of PAYG Social Security. They are presented in a simple and insightful analytical framework by working from the budget constraint of the household. The results presented in detail are a representation of the...

This paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a Pareto improvement. When returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated a system that endows retired...

This paper examines the growth effects of an increase of capital income taxes with additional revenue being devoted to cut wage-related social security contributions to reduce unemployment. The analysis is carried out in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth, unemployment and a...

We explore voluntary participation in pension arrangements. Individuals only participate when participation is more attractive than autarky. The bene??it of participation is that risks can be shared with future generations. We apply our analysis to a pay-as-you-go system, a funded system without...

This paper explores the optimal risk sharing arrangement between generations in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth. We allow for nonseparable preferences, paying particular attention to the risk aversion of the old as well as overall life-cycle risk aversion. We provide a...