Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future...

Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies...

In this paper we provide an overview of decision frameworks aimed at crafting an energy technology Research & Development portfolio, based on the results of three large expert elicitation studies and a large scale energy-economic model. We introduce importance sampling as a technique for...

This paper describes the WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid - model in its structure, calibration, and the implementation of the SSP/RCP scenario implementation. The WITCH model is a regionally disaggregated hard-linked model based on a Ramsey type optimal growth model and a detailed...

Characterizing the future performance of energy technologies can improve the development of energy policies that have net benefits under a broad set of future conditions. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) that promote...

In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these...

This paper analyzes the future prospects of carbon capture technologies. The first part of the analysis presents and discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on a broad range of carbon capture options. The survey collected probabilistic estimates on the future values of energy...

In this paper we compare the results of two different expert elicitation methods: in-person interviews and a self-administered web-based survey. Traditional expert elicitation has been done face to face, with an elicitor meeting with an expert for a few hours to several days, depending on the...

We address the problem of choosing a portfolio of policies under “deep uncertainty.” We introduce the idea of belief dominance as a way to derive a set of non-dominated portfolios and robust individual alternatives. Our approach departs from the tradition of providing a single recommended...

This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2êC. Under an...