This study uses time-series techniques and econometric approaches in order to quantify the effects that organising an EU presidency has on the tourism exports of a country. The approach to explain tourism revenues by a time-series intervention model filters out special effects (data...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

With the coefficient matrices of the polynomial matrices replacing the scalar coefficients in the standard Sylvester matrix, common factors exist if and only if this (generalized) Sylvester matrix is singular and the coefficient matrices commute. If the coefficient matrices do not commute, a...

This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. Daily covariances are estimated based on HF data of the S&P 500 universe employing a blocked realized kernel estimator. We propose forecasting covariance matrices using a...

We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...

During the past thirty years, there has been considerable concern about combination of forecasts. Many of the articles and books dedicated to this specific area explain and demonstrate that combining multiple individual forecasts can improve forecast accuracy. The improvement in accuracy mainly...

Econometric models are a widely used and powerful tool in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Admittedly, their acceptance by the scientific community has had some hard times during the seventies and eighties: a general decline in the reputation of macroeconomics, the Lucas critique, and...

This paper illustrates the Support Vector Method for the classification problem with two and more classes. In particular, the multi-class classification Support Vector Method of Weston and Watkins (1998) is correctly formulated as a quadratic optimization problem. Then, the method is applied to...