We assess the strength of the impact of a monetary policy shock on financial crisis probability in Norway. Policy effects go via the interest rate impact on credit, house prices and banks' wholesale funding. We find that the impact of a monetary policy shock on crisis probability is about 10...

Financial conditions indexes (FCIs) may be useful tools for policymakers because they may have the ability to summarize overall financial conditions for households and companies and at the same time provide timely information on real economic activity. A monthly FCI for Norway is constructed by...

De siste årene har den norske kronen svekket seg betydelig mot andre valutaer, noe som har bidratt til økt inflasjon i Norge. Prisveksten på importerte konsumvarer er for tiden på sitt høyeste nivå siden 1988. I denne artikkelen ser vi på mekanismene som valutakursen påvirker...

I 2013 endret Statistisk sentralbyrå metodene for beregning av prisutviklingen for to store konsumområder i konsumprisindeksen (KPI); for matvarer og alkoholfrie drikkevarer og for husleier. I denne artikkelen diskuterer og analyserer vi mulige effekter av metodeendringene. Vi anslår at de...

What drives the recent inflation surge? To answer this question, one must decompose inflation fluctuations into the contribution of structural shocks. We document how whimsical such a historical shock decomposition can be in standard vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We show that the...

The neutral real rate of interest (r*) is a key variable for assessing the tightness of monetary policy. The neutral real interest rate has by all accounts fallen substantially over the past three decades, amid slowing productivity growth, an ageing population, increased inequality and increased...

In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the sample includes the Great Recession. Recessions...

In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand shocks are found to be quantitatively important in the US, in particular if...