We analyse variations in sovereign bond yields and spreads follow- ing unconventional monetary policy announcements by the European Central Bank. Using a two-country, arbitrage-free, shadow-rate dynamic term structure model (SR-DTSM), we decompose countries' yields into expectation and risk...

This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor...

We assess the contribution of economic and financial factors in the determination of euro area corporate bond spreads over the period 2001-2015. The proposed multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model is based on the methodology proposed by Dewachter, Iania, Lyrio, and Perea (2015)....

We assess the contribution of economic and financial factors in the determination of euro area corporate bond spreads over the period 2001-2015. The proposed multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model is based on the methodology proposed by Dewachter, Iania, Lyrio, and Perea (2015)....

We use a macro-finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the U.S. bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques, we find that a single factor explains most of the variation in bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model-implied...

We estimate the 'fundamental' component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a...

We propose a new model to decompose inflation swaps into genuine inflation expectations and risk premiums. We develop a no-arbitrage term structure model with stochastic endpoints, separating macroeconomic variables into transitory parts and long-run, economically grounded determinants, such as...

This paper proposes a new approach to extract quantile-based inflation risk measures using Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Mixed-Frequency Data Sampling (QADL-MIDAS) regression models. We compare our models to a standard Quantile Auto-Regression (QAR) model and show that it delivers...

Messung der regimeübergreifenden Geschmeidigkeit von Wechselkursen Dieser Beitrag schlägt einen Rahmen vor für die Untersuchung der regimeübergreifenden Geschmeidigkeit von Wechselkursen und wendet diesen Rahmen an auf die in Deutscher Mark und französischen Francs notierten Kurse des...

Chaos im Dornbusch-Modell für den Wechselkurs Dieser Beitrag beschreibt ein Modell für den Wechselkurs. Er berücksichtigt Interaktionen zwischen unterschiedlichen Kategorien von Akteuren. Wir befassen uns mit zwei dieser Kategorien, nämlich mit den Fundamental-Analysten zum einen, die ihren...