accurate BVAR model used to forecast external demand provides an unbiased forecast and also yields a better forecast of turning … external demand forecast faster than is currently possible. The external demand forecast helps to forecast exports and, through … with the help thereof - their external demand, relying on BVAR models and using monthly time series (confidence indices …

directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. …

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been …

This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes …

-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed for use in the macroeconomic projections at the European Central Bank. The forecast … growth over the forecast evaluation period and, therefore, it tends to overestimate nominal wages. As a consequence, both the … BVAR can outperform the NAWM. …