We develop metrics based on Shapley values for interpreting time-series forecasting models, including "black-box" models from machine learning. Our metrics are model agnostic, so that they are applicable to any model (linear or nonlinear, parametric or nonparametric). Two of the metrics,...

By using a nonlinear VAR model, we investigate whether the response of the US stock and housing markets to uncertainty shocks depends on financial conditions. Our model allows us to change the response of the US financial markets to volatility shocks in periods of normal and financial distress....

This study empirically examines the fragility of five major Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) to economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of US and EU, and oil prices in different state of the economies. To investigate these dynamics, we use the relative tail dependence...

We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...

This study examines the monetary policy effectiveness of five major Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model-based spillover estimation approach of Balcilar et al. (2020b) at different quantile paths. To do this, we...

This study employs the recently developed Lagrange multiplier-based causality-in-variance test by Hafner and Herwartz (2006), to determine the volatility spillovers between interest rates and stock returns for the US, the euro area, the UK, and Japan. The investigation pays careful attention to...

The concept of factor intensity has played a key role in the development of international trade theory. The factor proportions utilized in the production of commodities differ from activity to activity. Some commodities employ a higher ratio of capital to labor than do others, and the basic...

We analyze the problem of preventing biological invasions caused by ships transporting internationally traded goods between countries and continents. Specifically, we ask the following question: Should a port manager have a small number of inspectors inspect arriving ships less stringently or...

This paper examines the short- and long-term effects of urbanization, via favorable urban development policies, on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country. The urban manufacturing sector is characterized by imperfect competition and free entry. Urbanization shifts rural...

The n total consumers in the market for a particular good are made up of b brown and g green consumers so that b+g=n. The b brown (g green) consumers are not (are) environmentally conscious and hence they prefer to buy a new (remanufactured) good denoted by N and R respectively. By strategically...