This paper studies the effect of Hungarian pension reforms between 2009-2012 on the adequacy and long-term fiscal stability of the Hungarian public pension system. For the adequacy analysis, we use a micro simulation model to project future initial pension levels relative to future gross wages....

In der deutschen Rentendebatte wird regelmäßig der Blick auf Österreich gerichtet. Aufmerksamkeit erregen dabei insbesondere die deutlich höheren gesetzlichen Rentenleistungen in unserem Nachbarland. Wie finanzieren die Österreicher diese hohen Renten? Wie unterscheidet sich generell das...

This paper studies the effect of oil discoveries on economic growth in Brazilian municipalities for the period from 1940 to 2000. It uses a unique identification strategy which exploits data on the drilling of approximately 20,000 oil wells in Brazil since oil explorations began in the country....

We analyze how markets adjust to new information when the reliability of news is uncertain and has to be estimated itself. We propose a Bayesian learning model where market participants receive fundamental information along with noisy estimates of news' precision. It is shown that the efficiency...

A major aim of the recent updates of National Accounting standards (SNA2008 and ESA2010) is to provide a more complete picture of households' wealth. In this course it will become mandatory for European countries to publish annual estimates of unfunded public pension entitlements (UPPE) from...

Bayesian learning provides a core concept of information processing in financial markets. Typically it is assumed that market participants perfectly know the quality of released news. However, in practice, news' precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning...

This paper introduces the approach of the Freiburg model to quantify accrued-to-date liabilities (ADL) of public pension schemes. The presented framework has been applied to carry out benchmark calculations for 19 EU member states on behalf of the Eurostat/ECB Contact Group on Pensions. We will...

Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news' precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely dis- closed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian...

During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously...

Ein fiskalischer Vergleich entwickelter Staaten geschieht häufig über jährliche Indikatoren wie etwa den Maastricht-Kriterien Defizit- und Schuldenquote. Um jedoch die Tragfähigkeit einer jeweiligen Fiskalpolitik einschätzen zu können, bedarf es der Erweiterung der Perspektive um...