This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices...

The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is a variable of interest to policy makers as it provides an estimate of the degree of labour market slack in the economy. However, the NAIRU is unobservable, and must be estimated using statistical models. This is most commonly...

Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...

This paper adopts the methodology developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to nowcast the expenditure components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Australian economy. The aim is to help assess the current state of the economy and to assist with macroeconomic forecasting. A range of...

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.