We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the … decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are …, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises …

indicator for inflation uncertainty. Moreover, the idiosyncratic component of survey disagreement contains systematic …Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled … that higher inflation is followed by higher uncertainty. By contrast, we obtain contradictory results for the individual …

derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also … explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents' forecast performance and … forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents' uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is …

. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and …

in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and … heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of … disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. …