Numerous tests designed to detect realized jumps over a fixed time span have been proposed and extensively studied in the financial econometrics literature. These tests differ from 'long time span tests' that detect jumps by examining the magnitude of the jump intensity parameter in the data...

It has been well known in financial economics that factor betas depend on observed instruments such as firm specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables, and a key object of interest is the effect of instruments on the factor betas. One of the key features of our model is that we specify...

In this paper we characterize what has sometimes been referred to in the literature as instantaneous causality, by examining the consequences of temporal aggregation in (possibly) Granger causal systems of variables. Our approach is to compare the concept of contemporaneous correlation due to...

It is common practice in econometrics to correct for heteroskedasticity.This paper corrects instrumental variables estimators with many instruments for heteroskedasticity.We give heteroskedasticity robust versions of the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) and Fuller (1977, FULL)...

A number of recent studies in the economics literature have focused on the usefulness of factor models in the context of prediction using big data. In this paper, our over-arching question is whether such big data are useful for modelling low frequency macroeconomic variables such as...

In this paper, we provide new evidence on the empirical usefulness of various simple seasonal models, and underscore the importance of carefully designing criteria by which one judges alternative models. In particular, we underscore the importance of both choice of forecast or simulation horizon...

This paper shows how a weighted average of a forward and reverse Jackknife IV estimator (JIVE) yields estimators that are robust against heteroscedasticity and many instruments. These estimators, called HFUL (Heteroscedasticity robust Fuller) and HLIM (Heteroskedasticity robust limited...

In recent years, an impressive body or research on predictive accuracy testing and model comparison has been published in the econometrics discipline. Key contributions to this literature include the paper by Diebold and Mariano (DM: 1995) that sets the groundwork for much of the subsequent work...

In a recent paper, Hausman et al. (2012) propose a new estimator, HFUL (Heteroscedasticity robust Fuller), for the linear model with endogeneity. This estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed in the many instruments and many weak instruments asymptotics. Moreover, this...

The technique of using densities and conditional distributions to carry out consistent specification testing and model selection amongst multiple diffusion processes have received considerable attention from both financial theoreticians and empirical econometricians over the last two decades....