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We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. We use this approach to study whether U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters density projections for output growth and inflation are consistent with the noisy rational expectations hypothesis. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013432955
In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default … swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from … correlation risk premium. This premium, which covaries negatively with current realized correlations and positively with future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295946
fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns. Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular … investable equity indices in the period of 2000-2015. Such an approach is proposed to estimate an equity risk premium for a … years we illustrate the importance of model risk and data overfitting effects when drawing conclusions upon results of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012011864
This paper demonstrates that it is possible to improve significantly on the estimated call prices obtained with the regression and simulation-based least-squares Monte Carlo method by using put-call symmetry. The results show that, for a large sample of options with characteristics of relevance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611139
from the theoretical literature to develop credit risk models that would include this possibility. A possible justification … the impact on credit risk term structures of the macroeconomic risks. In the proposed model the state of the economy is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281231
Investment behaviour, techniques and choices have evolved in the options markets since the launch of options trading in 1973. Today, we are entering the field of Big Data and the explosion of information, which has become the main feature of science, impacts investors' decisions and their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015330108
Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Analyse des Einflusses der Faktoren Konjunkturerwartung, Risikoaversion des Kapitalmarktes und Liquidität auf die Marktwerte von Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) verschiedener Seniorität. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Marktwerte von CDOs wesentlich...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427771
volatility risk, for dollar, euro and pound rates at a daily frequency, between October 1998 and August 2006. The measurement of … the volatility risk premium rests on a simple model according to which variance forecasts are generated under the … large - negative - compensation for volatility risk, a component which was smaller in absolute terms - but not relative to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604905
-based measures of credit risk, liquidity risk and interest rate risk. In this context, I analyse how the set of explanatory factors … repriced CDX contracts to a larger extent than iTraxx contracts. Credit risk and liquidity factors are priced in almost all … tranches with liquidity risk playing a larger role since the start of the turmoil. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604956
components of the credit spread by analysing different risk factors of corporate bonds such as credit risk, market risk and … residual spread risk. To specify the proper credit spread level, various mesurement methods like the yield to maturity, zero …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324341