Showing 1 - 10 of 15,683
This paper proposes a variant of a threshold stochastic conditional duration (TSCD) model for financial data at the … transaction level. It assumes that the innovations of the duration process follow a threshold distribution with a positive support … discrimination, we employ deviance information criteria, which does not depend on the number of model parameters directly. Duration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611110
This paper describes a semiparametric Bayesian method for analyzing duration data. The proposed estimator specifies a … complete functional form for duration spells, but allows flexibility by introducing an individual heterogeneity term, which … follows a Dirichlet mixture distribution. I show how to obtain predictive distributions for duration data that correctly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276176
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock price indexes. Forecasts produced by each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335762
This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010369183
This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-ofmoments- based estimator has two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261840
This paper investigates the determinants of German long-term unemployment. In particular a microeconometric event history analysis will be carried out to examine what impact personal characteristics such as age, gender, education, etc. or factors such as receiving unemployment benefits have on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301746
This paper discusses duration models for the quantification of credit risk. Econometric techniques to quantify the … duration of a credit in a “non-default” state are analyzed and applied to a data set obtained from credit files taken from six …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316319
an auxiliary univariate single-spell duration model. The method exploits information on the timing of the treatment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261550
We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330969
different benefit sizes. Our results from a duration analysis show clearly that the higher the benefits, the larger the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317946