Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Volatility is a key concept for understanding the dual relationships between the economic variables since it is inversely related to the stability of economies. Many models such as GARCH models have been constructed through time to understand which determinants and conditions can affect the...

Random Walk oder Mean Reversion? Eine statistische Analyse des Kurs/Gewinn-Verhältnisses für den deutschen Aktienmarkt Im Zentrum der vorliegenden Ausarbeitung steht die Frage, ob das Modell eines Random Walk oder eines AR(1)-Prozesses ("Mean Reversion") besser geeignet ist, die Entwicklung...

The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the...

We employ parametric and non-parametric cointegration to investigate the extent of integration between African stock markets and the rest of the world. Long-run correlation estimates imply very low association between the two. The two distinct cointegration approaches confirm the latter through...

Easley / Kiefer / O'Hara / Paperman (1996) (EKOP) have proposed an empirical methodology that allows to estimate the probability of informed trading and that has subsequently been used to address a wide range of issues in market microstructure. The data needed for estimation is the number of...

The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Assessing the discriminative power of rating systems is an important question to banks and to regulators. In this article we analyze the Cumulative Accuracy Profile (CAP) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) which are both commonly used in practice. We give a test-theoretic...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...