Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper we study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

The objective of this paper is to apply the method developed in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran, and Shin (2000) to build a structural model for Germany with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. The modelling strategy consists of a set of long-run structural relationships suggested by...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

To provide an modelling strategy with transparent and theoretically coherent foundation has been one of the targets of the paper by Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin. They develop a core model for a small open economy based production technology, arbitrage conditions, flow identities and long-run...

In this note the author discusses the problem of updating forecasts in a time-discrete forecasting model when information arrives between the current period and the next period. To use the information that arrives between two periods, he assumes that the process between two periods can be...

Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper the authors study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent...

How inflation and unemployment are related in both the short run and long run is perhaps the key question in macroeconomics. This paper tests various price equations using quarterly U.S. data from 1952 to the present. Issues treated are the following. 1) Estimating price and wage equations in...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing...