Endogenous Uncertainty is that component of economic risk and market volatility which is propagated within the economy … by the beliefs and actions of agents. The theory of Rational Belief (see Kurz [1994]) permits rational agents to hold … Uncertainty. This paper shows that most of the observed volatility in financial markets is generated by the beliefs of the agents …

Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably …

CAPM under power utility is excessively high. Moreover, estimates in the literature vary considerably across countries. We …

period ahead; in the Volatility treatment, we also elicit subjective confidence intervals of forecasts, which we take as a … measure of perceived volatility. The realized asset price is derived from a Walrasian market equilibrium equation with non …-linear feedback from individual forecasts. Our experimental markets exhibit high volatility, fat tails and other properties typical of …

and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium …

This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns and stock return volatility of energy corporations from the … European utilities, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Most importantly, we show that oil market volatility … negatively affects European oil and gas stocks. In contrast, energy stock volatility is not driven by volatility of the resource …

kernel smoothing of the conditional mean function. An asymptotic theory for the resulting kernel estimator is developed and …