One of the dangers of high inflation is that it can cause firms and households to pay close attention to it. This internalization of inflation can lead to an accelerationist regime, making inflation harder to control. We empirically assess the relationship between attention and the level of...

Prior research has documented that attention to inflation shifts when inflation surpasses a 3-4% threshold. In this note we examine how attention to inflation declines in episodes of disinflation. We show that for countries where inflation has returned to "normal" (pre-threshold) levels,...

There is a large literature evaluating the dual process model of cognition, including the biases and heuristic it implies. To advance this literature, we focus on what triggers decision makers to switch from the intuitive process (aka System 1) to the more deliberative process (aka System 2)....

Since 2010 and before the pandemic hit, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show that partially-responding households - households that respond to some but not all of the survey's eight panels - account for most of the rise....

Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from...

There is now considerable evidence that business cycle variation in output and employment in the U.S. differs in expansions and contractions. We present nonparametric evidence that asymmetries are strongest in durable goods manufacturing. In a Markov switching framework, we find two leading...

The paper examines the processes underlying economic fluctuations by investigating the volatility moderation of U.S. economy in the early 1980's. We decompose the volatility decline using a dynamic factor framework into a common stochastic trend, common transitory component and idiosyncratic...

In this paper, we add to the literature on the assessment of how well RBC simulated data reproduce the dynamic features of historical data. In particular, we evaluate a variety of new Keynesian DSGE models, including the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo (1983), the sticky price...

In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of DSGE sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson (2005a) as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano (1995) andWest (1996) are...

In this paper we take an agnostic view of the Phillips curve debate, and carry out an empirical investigation of the relative and absolute efficacy of Calvo sticky price (SP), sticky information (SI), and sticky price with indexation models (SPI), with emphasis on their ability to mimic...