This paper outlines the recently developed method for assessing the trend level in employment rates adopted by Norges Bank. The approach employs a Bayesian VAR to decompose disaggregated employment data into trend and cyclical components, using quarterly labor market data on 30 demographic...

Banks' profitability is their first line of defence against losses, and net interest income is banks' main source of revenue. Since the policy rate hikes began in 2021, net interest income has increased substantially relative to assets, strengthening banks' loss-absorbing capacity. We use a VAR...

In recent years, the liquidity premium between the Norwegian krone (NOK) and the US dollar (USD) in the FX swap market, the so-called OIS basis, has accounted for a larger share of the Nibor premium than earlier. This has been attributed by several to low structural liquidity and banks'...

Norwegian banks have substantial exposures to commercial real estate (CRE), and developments in the industry are important for financial stability. Higher financing costs, falling CRE prices and a large amount of bond debt maturing in the coming years have increased the refinancing risk...

Record-high payments of petroleum tax in October 2022, and the accompanying fall in structural liquidity, resulted in a marked rise in the shortest-term Norwegian money market rates. In this staff memo we describe how petroleum tax payments affect liquidity in the banking system and discuss why...