Electricity price forecasting has become an area of increasing relevance in recent years. Despite the growing interest in predictive algorithms, the challenges are difficult to overcome given the restricted access to relevant data series and the lack of accurate metrics. Multiple models have...

This paper introduces residual shape risk as a new subclass of energy commodity risk. Residual shape risk is caused by insufficient liquidity of energy forward market when retail energy supplier has to hedge his short sales by a non-exible standard baseload product available on wholesale market....

Analyzing commodity market dynamics, we observe that price volatility increases with reduced contract duration. In this paper, we derive a theoretical model depicting the price formation in two markets with altering product granularity. Supplemented by empirical evidence from German electricity...

Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auctin which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a...

Empirical relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates of oil exporting countries tend to vary over time. I use econometric models of the norwegian and canadian nominal exchange rates to investigate whether such time-variation could reflect shifts in the key oil price drivers over...

Renewable energy such as wind or solar power currently contributes a large share to the total German electricity supply as a result of the German energy transition. This paper presents an empirical analysis of how power shocks resulting from intermittent renewable supply affect forward premiums...

This research paper presents new gasoline demand price elasticity estimates for California. The study leverages the unique characteristics of California's gasoline market and introduces a new set of proposed instruments. As a first step, the study takes advantage of California's partially...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...

The globalisation on financial markets and the development of financial derivatives has increased not only chances but also potential risk within the banking industry. Especially market risk has gained major significance since market price variation of interest rates, stocks or exchange rates...