We examine how the occurrence of natural disasters impact the US economy and financial markets using monthly data since 2000. Our analysis reveals large sustained adverse effects of disasters on overall economic activity, with significant implications across various sectors including labor,...

We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We employ a Markov regime-switching version of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to allow for regime shifts, non-linear effects and timevarying parameters of the VAR process....

This paper estimates monetary policy shocks for Sweden between 1996-2019. I employ the Romer and Romer (2004) (R&R) approach and use annual forecasts of output growth and inflation to estimate monetary policy shocks. I complement the analysis with shocks from a recursive VAR including output,...

Business-cycle adjustment is mostly determined via filter methods, especially the HP filter, or, e.g. within the EU fiscal rules, by a production function approach. James Hamilton put big doubt on the quality of the HP filter estimates, and proposed an alternative regression approach to...

The equivalence of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and the trend-cycle decomposition is well established. In this paper we argue that this equivalence is almost immediate when a Gaussian score-driven location model is considered. We also provide a natural extension towards heavy-tailed...

This paper uses a seasonal long-memory model to capture the behaviour of the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) over the period 1919Q1-2022Q4. This series is found to display a large value of the periodogram at the zero, long-run frequency, and to exhibit an order of integration around 1. When...

Nach einer langanhaltenden Abwärtsbewegung ist im Bereich der Unternehmensinsolvenzen die Trendwende nach oben eingeleitet. Im Anschluss an einen leichten Anstieg im Jahr 2022, der auch als Schritt der Normalisierung nach dem kräftigen Rückgang in der Corona-Pandemie 2020/21 aufgefasst werden...

Although the influence of exceptional weather on individual behaviour has already been acknowledged in finance, psychology, and marketing, the literature examining weather effects at more aggregate level is still limited. Further, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that weather anomalies...