Similar Search Results

Cross- and Auto-Correlation Effects arising from Averaging: The Case of US Interest Rates and Equity Duration

Hallerbach, Winfried G. - 2000

-known that this averaging introduces spurious autocorrelation effectsin the first differences of the series. It isexactly this … this autocorrelation component from theaveraged series. In addition we investigate thepotential effect of averaging on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324663

Why Are Asset Returns Predictable?

Lüders, Erik - 2002

Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297953

Finite sample of the Durbin-Watson test against fractionally integrated disturbances

Kleiber, Christian; Krämer, Walter - 2004

We consider the finite sample power of various tests against serial correlation in the disturbances of a linear regression when these disturbances follow a stationary long memory process. It emerges that the power depends on the form of the regressor matrix and that, for the Durbin-Watson test...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306236

Can we make money with fifth-order autocorrelation in Japanese stock prices?

Tsutsui, Yoshiro; Hirayama, Kenjiro; Tanaka, Takahiro; … - 2005

We first report that one-minute returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at five-minute intervals … jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the source of this autocorrelation, since these have been updated at five …-minute intervals since August 1998. Individual stock returns also exhibit fifth-order autocorrelation, but this disappears when the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332467

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

Luetkepohl, Helmut; Xu, Fang - 2009

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264593

Testing for long memory against ESTAR nonlinearities

Kuswanto, Heri; Sibbertsen, Philipp - 2009

We develop a Wald type test to distinguish between long memory and ESTAR nonlinearity by using a directed-Wald statistic to overcome the problem of restricted parameters under the alternative. The test is derived from two basic model specifications where the first is the standard model based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270049

Identification problems in ESTAR models and a new model

Donauer, Stefanie; Heinen, Florian; Sibbertsen, Philipp - 2010

In ESTAR models it is usually difficult to determine parameter estimates, as it can be observed in the literature. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-called identification problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270399

Forecasting nonlinear aggregates and aggregates with time-varying weights

Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2010

Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270456

Localized realized volatility modelling

Chen, Ying; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Pigorsch, Uta - 2009

With the recent availability of high-frequency Financial data the long range dependence of volatility regained researchers' interest and has lead to the consideration of long memory models for realized volatility. The long range diagnosis of volatility, however, is usually stated for long sample...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274152

Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276226