Real exchange rates are quite persistent. Standard unit root tests are not very powerful in drawing a conclusion regarding the validity of purchasing power parity [PPP]. Rather than asking if PPP holds throughout the whole sample period, we examine if PPP holds sometimes by employing...

We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...

This paper shows that the properties of nonlinear transformations of a fractionally integrated process depend strongly on whether the initial series is stationary or not. Transforming a stationary Gaussian I(d) process with d 0 leads to a long-memory process with the same or a smaller...

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the...