This article contributes new time series for studying the U.K. economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average tax rates of capital income, labor income, and consumption. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an...

The United Kingdom employed the McKenna rule to conduct fiscal policy during World War I (WWI) and the interwar period. Named for Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of the Exchequer (1915–16), the McKenna rule committed the United Kingdom to a path of debt retirement, which we show was...

Benjamin and Kochin (1979, Journal of Political Economy) present regression estimates to support their hypothesis that larger unemployment benefits increased U.K. unemployment post–World War I (WWI). The Benjamin-Kochin (BK) regression is easy to replicate. When the replication is widened to...

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for propagation and monetary transmission in New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. We use Bayesian methods to evaluate the role of internal consumption habit in NKDSGE model propagation and monetary...

This paper arms central bank policy makers with ways to think about interactions between financial stability and monetary policy. We frame the issue of whether to integrate financial stability into monetary policy operating rules by appealing to the observation that in actual economies financial...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky-information forecast...

Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and model its forecasts. The model is an AR(n) but allows for...

Clark and McCracken (2008) argue that combining real-time point forecasts from VARs of output, prices and interest rates improves point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain model instabilities. In this paper, we generalize their approach to consider forecast density combinations and...

Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist's toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the Romer (2006) textbook,...

We argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary...