We study the role of monetary policy for the dynamics of U.S. mortgage debt, which is the largest component of household indebtedness. A timevarying parameter VAR model allows us to study the variation in the mortgage debt sensitivity to monetary policy. We find that an identically-sized policy...

We study the response of daily household spending to the surprise number of fatalities of the COVID‐19 pandemic, which we label as a pandemic shock. Based on daily forecasts of the number of fatalities, we construct the surprise component as the difference between the actual and the expected...

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade....

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines business cycle variables with data from international container trade....

We use a new data set of daily visits of the website of the Federal Reserve Board to study the acquisition of information about monetary policy around meetings of the FOMC.

This paper studies the determinants of business cycles in small open economies and adds to the discussion about the changing nature of inflation dynamics. We estimate a series of VAR models for a set of six Asian emerging market economies, in which we identify a battery of domestic and global...

We study the response of daily household spending to the unexpected component of the COVID-19 pandemic, which we label as pandemic shock. Based on daily forecasts of the number of fatalities, we construct the surprise component as the difference between the actual and the expected number of...

They do. Partly. We identify credit supply shocks via sign restrictions in a Bayesian VAR and separate them into positive and negative. Using local projections, we find that positive credit supply shocks leave notably different prints in private debt, mortgage debt, and debt-to-GDP, as opposed...

The open economy New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates postulates that the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock in a zero lower bound (ZLB) scenario and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. However, when monetary policy is able to...

We estimate the effects of a negative asymmetric demand shock on the real exchange rate for the euro area vis-à-vis the United States, Canada, and Japan by state-dependent sign-restricted local projection methods. We find a real depreciation when interest rates are not at the ZLB, but also when...