either with forecasts from a fully solved model, or with the instrumented actual values, or with forecast survey data …

yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields …, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy … are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE … react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 … financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. …

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations … role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark …

Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the … first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It …

countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

optimal but ’simple’ forecast functions, describes subjects’ inflation expectations surprisingly well and explains the …