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This note examines the stochastic properties of US term spreads with parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration techniques. Since the observed data (rather than the estimated residuals from a cointegrating regression) are used for the analysis, standard methods can be applied. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271352
To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short run dynamics of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263095
variables: the dividend yield, two factors driving the one-period real interest rate and the rate of inflation. The model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605091
We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following … struc- ture and are associated with the time-varying uncertainty of the yield curve's level, slope and curvature. Estimating … the model based on U.S. government bond yields applying Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques we find that the yield factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263741
-variance cointegration we actually find cointegration relations between spreads and premia in US data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281525
model of interest rate determination. The empirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction … frequently mentioned structural effects on long-term interest rates. Finally, our bond yield equation outperforms a random walk … Einflüsse und/oder strukturelle Faktoren zum niedrigen Niveau der Renditen in den USA in den letzten Jahren beigetragen haben …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308389
We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325734
This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration … exploiting recent developments in fractional cointegration allows to investigate in greater depth the relationships between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274802
This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration … exploiting recent developments in fractional cointegration allows to investigate in greater depth the relationships between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286312
This paper presents a new approach for analysing the recent development of EMU sovereign bond spreads. Based on a GARCH-in-mean model originally used in the exchange rate target zone literature, spreads are decomposed into a risk premium, an expected loss component and a liquidity premium....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300392