This paper presents a complex, modular, 1:1 scale model of the Hungarian residential housing market. All the 4 million house- holds and their relevant characteristics are represented based on empirical micro-level data coming from the Central Credit Information System, the Pension Payment...

Within the framework of the Basel III capital regulation, macroprudential authorities may order the accumulation of countercyclical capital buffers in the period when systemic risks are building up. According to recommendations, it is worth setting the size of the capital buffer on the basis of...

The high ratio of loans over 90 days past due, i.e. nonperforming mortgage loans, is the legacy of the crisis and the excessive lending that preceded it. The volume has continuously grown over the past six years and by the end of 2014 accounted for one quarter of the total mortgage portfolio,...

This paper reviews financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Iceland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. The paper has been prepared by an expert group of staff from the European...

In banking practice, quantifying the probability of default is one of the most important elements of the lending decision, therefore it is also vital from a financial stability perspective. The aim of our research was to model the probability of default as precisely as possible in the case of...

This study presents the detailed method of the MNB's house price index and the results of the new price indices. The index family is considered to be a novelty among Hungarian housing market statistics in several regards. Firstly, the national index was derived from a database starting in 1990,...

In this paper, relying on a time-varying parameters FAVAR model, two credit supply factors are calculated, the first of which is identified as willingness to lend, while the second as lending capacity. The impact of these two types of credit supply shocks on macroeconomic variables and their...

Our study deals with interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on the tightening cycle starting in the middle of 2021. This period is of particular interest for interest rate pass-through, as the sharp hikes by...

We use European and simulated Hungarian data to search for the univariate one-sided credit-to-GDP gap that predicts systemic banking crises most accurately. The credit-to-GDP gaps under review are optimized along four dimensions: (1) definition of outstanding credit, (2) forecasting method for...

Our study presents the top-down stress testing framework currently used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. We run separate solvency and liquidity stress tests to analyse the ability of the banking system to absorb shocks and we present their results in our Report on Financial Stability. In the former,...