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When is there a strong transfer risk from the sovereigns to the corporates?

Bai, Jennie; Wei, Shang-jin - 2012

When a sovereign faces the risk of debt default, it may be tempted to expropriate the private sector. This may be one reason why international investment in private companies has to take into account the sovereign risk. But the likelihood of sovereign risk transferring to corporates and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333592

Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach

Lombardi, Marco J.; Osbat, Chiara; Schnatz, Bernd - 2010

In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605216

Crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate: A forecasting exercise

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Breitenfellner, Andreas - 2008

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293389

Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility

Chen, Ping-Yu; Chang, Chia-Lin; Chen, Chi-Chung; … - 2013

mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326493

Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices

Fratzscher, Marcel; Schneider, Daniel; Van Robays, Ine - 2014

This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605734

Interdependence between foreign exchange markets and stock markets in selected European countries

Islami, Mevlud - 2008

In this analysis the interdependence between foreign exchange markets and stock markets for selected accession and cohesion countries is discussed. This includes basic theoretical approaches. Monthly data for the nominal stock market indices and nominal exchange rates are used, where Ireland,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291121

Measuring co-movements of CDS premia during the Greek debt crisis

Andenmatten, Sergio; Brill, Felix - 2011

In this paper we test whether the co-movement of sovereign CDS premia increased significantly after the Greek debt crisis started in October 2009. We perform a bivariate test for contagion that is based on an approach proposed by Forbes and Rigobon (2002). Our sample consists of daily data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316042

Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies

Perotti, Enrico C.; van Oijen, Pieter - 1999

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324472

Too much, too little, or too volatile? International capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s

Nunnenkamp, Peter - 2001

Developing countries are constrained in financing current account deficits as real capital mobility is still far from perfect. At the same time, capital flows to these countries proved to be extremely volatile. The paper argues that the long-term problem of "too little" should not be confused...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265491

Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks

Van Robays, Ine - 2012

demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288244