This paper aims an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. For this purpose I conduct a factor analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. I use survey-based data provided by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as...

Using a novel approach, this paper analyses the deliberately communicated uncertainty of the ECB to the market. Specifically, it semantically analyses the uncertainty expressed in official ECB press statements. The analysis shows how the ECB tries to alert or appease the market with different...

We merge a financial market model with leverage-constrained, heterogeneous agents with a reduced-form version of the New-Keynesian standard model. Agents in both submodels are assumed to be boundedly rational. The fi nancial market model produces endogenously arising boom-bust cycles. It is also...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...

House price booms in Anglo-Saxon economies and their collapse were an important part of the financial accelerator via consumption, construction and the banking system. This paper examines links for Germany between household portfolios, income and consumption in a six-equation system, for...

This report analyses and reviews the corporate finance structure of non-financial corporations (NFCs) in the euro area, including how they interact with the macroeconomic environment. Special emphasis is placed on the crisis that began in 2007-08, thus underlining the relevance of financing and...

Central bank communication has become a crucial tool for steering the monetary policy stance and shaping the outlook of market participants. Traditionally, analyzing central bank communication required substantial human effort, expertise, and resources, making the process time-consuming. The...