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Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data

Rünstler, Gerhard; Sédillot, Franck - 2003

The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635895

Consumer inflation expectations in Poland

£yziak, Tomasz - 2003

Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635882

15. CEIES-Seminar : Inflation in Europa u0097 Unterschiedliche Messkonzepte und deren Nutzer ; Berlin, 4. und 5. Oktober 2001

Europäische Kommission / Statistisches Amt - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009637069

Interpreting implied risk-neutral densities

Hördahl, Peter; Vestin, David - 2003

This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635905

Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area

Gerlach-Kristen, Petra - 2003

inflation and the output gap, are unstable when estimated on euro area data and forecast poorly out of sample. We present an … argue reflects shifts in the publicu0092s perception of the long-run inflation objective. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635919

Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?

Moneta, Fabio - 2003

This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636517

Inflation, factor substitution and growth

Klump, Rainer - 2003

Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects … influence of inflation on factor substitution. It turns out that already in a simple neoclassical monetary growth model this … potential positive effects of inflation along the convergence path. In a more general perspective the paper contributes to a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635886

Forecasting euro area inflation

Hubrich, Kirstin - 2003

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inﬂation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635954

Inflation and relative price asymmetry

Ratfai, Attila - 2004

By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this … forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and … relative price asymmetry is positive, idiosyncratic shocks lead to a substantial build-up in inflation only after two to five …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524

Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics

Trigari, Antonella - 2004

In order to explain the joint fluctuations of output, inflation and the labor market, this paper first develops a … helps to explain the sluggishness of inflation and the persistence of output after a monetary policy shock. The ability of … the model to account for the joint dynamics of output and inflation rely on its ability to explain the dynamics in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527