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Álvarez, Luis J.; Hernando, Ignacio - 2004

This paper identifies the basic features of the price setting mechanism in the Spanish economy, using a large dataset that contains over 1.1 million price records and covers around 70% of the expenditure on the CPI basket. In particular, the paper identifies differences in the frequency and size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639476

Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons

Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2010

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640285

Firms' reactions to the crisis and their consequences for the labour market

Kwapil, Claudia - 2010

This article is based on the results of two company surveys - the first was conducted in 2007, before the recession 2008/2009 hit Austria, and the second was conducted in 2009 shortly after the trough of it. We analyse firms’ reactions to the crisis and focus on their labour market relevant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640421

Behavioural characteristics and financial distress

McCarthy, Yvonne - 2011

Using a new nationally representative survey of financial capability and experience in the UK and Ireland, I investigate the key factors that cause individuals to experience financial distress. In this context, a key area that I focus on is whether individuals’ behavioural traits, such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640636

Determinants of credit-less recoveries

Bijsterbosch, Martin; Dahlhaus, Tatjana - 2011

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After … building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses … panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640847

The dark side of bank wholesale funding

Huang, Rocco; Ratnovski, Lev - 2010

Banks increasingly use short-term wholesale funds to supplement traditional retail deposits. Existing literature mainly points to the "bright side" of wholesale funding: sophisticated financiers can monitor banks, disciplining bad but refinancing good ones. This paper models a "dark side" of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640317

Risk spillover among hedge funds

Klaus, Benjamin; Rzepkowski, Bronka - 2009

This paper aims at analysing the mortality patterns of hedge funds over the period January 1994 to May 2008. In particular, we investigate the extent to which a spillover of risk among hedge funds through redemptions and failures of other funds has affected the probability of fund failure. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640467

Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - 2003

To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coeﬃcient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635914

Nelson-Siegel, affine and quadratic yield curve specifications

Nyholm, Ken; Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa - 2010

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640335

In dubio pro CES

León-Ledesma, Miguel A.; McAdam, Peter; Willman, Alpo - 2010

Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640366