To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects already under relatively modest rates. Most contributions to monetary growth theory, however, have difficulties in explaining such a pattern. It is shown in this paper that this...

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two...

Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be...

The paper presents an analysis of the trade-offs of participants of different type between payment delay and liquidity requirement on the basis of synthetically generated data. The generation of the synthetic transaction data set for a simple RTGS system is described and calibrated using real...

In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European growth strategy. It considers an average economic u0093growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming yearsu0094 and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses...

The sectoral allocation of labor differs considerably across developed economies, even in the presence of similar patterns of structural change. A general equilibrium model that captures the stylized facts of structural change is presented. In this framework, product market regulations raise...

This paper provides an overview of the development of the conceptual framework underlying social protection programming and policy among the key international development institutions active in this sector. It sets out the historical, institutional and political factors underlying the current...

Recently, EU Commission adopted a decision to fund a Technical Cooperation Facility for OCTs in order to improve their capacities to formulate and implement key territorial policies. Improvement in statistical capacities appeared with a high rank. Indeed, OCTs have noticed several gaps in their...

This report provides an overview of the methods and results of the TRENDS (Transport and Environment Database System) project. The aim of this project was to produce a range of transparent, consistent and comparable indicators of the environmental pressure caused by transport. Results cover the...