Similar Search Results

Implementing optimal control in cointegrated I(1) structural VAR models

Monti, Francesca V. - 2003

This paper examines the feasibility of implementing Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) Control in structural cointegrated VAR models and sheds some light on the two major problems generated by such implementation. The first aspect to be taken into account is the effect of the presence of unit roots...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635883

Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

Strauch, Rolf; Hallerberg, Mark; Hagen, Jürgen von - 2004

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636530

Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús; Vidal, Jean-Pierre - 2004

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639455

The short-term impact of government budgets on prices

Henry, Jérôme; Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Momigliano, … - 2004

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639456

Exploring the international linkages of the euro area

Dées, Stéphane; Mauro, Filippo di; Pesaran, Hashem; … - 2005

This paper presents a quarterly global model linking individual country vector errorcorrecting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639926

Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

Hauptmeier, Sebastian; Fuentes, Jesus Sanchez; … - 2010

The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640273

Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2010

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country … restrictions implied by the NK theory. The multi-country DSGE NK model is then solved to provide estimates of identified supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640301

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bayesian VARs and VARs using … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … BVARs and DSGE-VARs. Compared to the SPF, the DSGE model generates better output forecasts at longer horizons, but less …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640469

Euro area labour markets

Bruha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640610

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area

Dieppe, Alistair; González Pandiella, Alberto; Hall, … - 2011

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640692