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This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635905
supplies, outputs, inflation rates and interest rates. Nonetheless, it has been well documented that such variables little help …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635953
the determination of inflation and output in the euro area and the existence of a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635901
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the …Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those … to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635882
Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and u0096 given that key parameters are generally calibrated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635912
help anchoring inflation expectations. We use survey data on long-term inflation expectations in 15 industrial countries … since the early nineties to investigate how well anchored are inflation expectations. We find that in all countries except … Japan long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and, generally, increasingly so over the past decade. When …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635904
u0093Bond Market Inflation Expectation and Longer-term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial … in inflation that were matched by growth rates in M2 and nominal GDP but not real GDP in each country and cross …-country averages. Inflationary expectations as estimated by bond rates less real growth trends indicated little inflation expectation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635923
Recent empirical studies on the inflation-growth-relationship underline that inflation has negative growth effects … already under relatively modest rates. Most contributions to monetary growth theory, however, have difficulties in explaining … influence of inflation on factor substitution. It turns out that already in a simple neoclassical monetary growth model this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635886
By placing store-level price data into bivariate Structural VAR models of inflation and relative price asymmetry, this …. Robustly to alternative definitions of the relative price, identification schemes dictated by two-sided (S,s) pricing theory … forecast error variance in inflation at the 12-month horizon. While the contemporaneous correlation between inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636524