encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead …

Overall, household debt levels have risen sharply over the past decades in EU Member States. While certain levels of … household debts can be beneficial, they can become problematic especially with a sudden, unexpected decrease of incomes or …

Household over-indebtedness is among the causes of the current financial crisis. In turn, the crisis exacerbated both … public and private debt problems. In this paper, household over-indebtedness is broadly defined as the situation where a … household cannot comply with payment requirements – whether it be mortgage, utility or consumer credit payments – on a …

series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various … indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months …

that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes …

business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based …