Showing 1 - 10 of 117
Among the harmful effects of inflation, the negative consequences of inflation volatility are of particular concern … inflation volatility. Major results are robust for unconditional and conditional inflation volatility, the latter derived from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636540
We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639853
We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640913
This paper considers the role of foreign investors in developed-country equity markets. It presents a quantitative … investors of different sophistication, and (ii) investor sophistication matters for performance in both public equity and … international equity trades: (i ) trading by US investors occurs in bursts of simultaneous buying and selling, (ii ) Americans build …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636533
leverage and asset volatility. We conclude that the bilateral cross-sector exposures in the euro area financial system … financial intermediaries playing a key role in the processes. High financial leverage and high asset volatility are found to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640455
While the 2007-2010 financial crisis has hit a variety of countries asymmetrically, the case of Spain is particularly illustrative: this country experienced a pronounced housing bubble partly funded via spectacular developments in its securitization markets leading to looser credit standards and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640768
Within a two-step GARCH framework we explore the linkages between equity returns of ten sectors in the euro area, the … United States and Japan, respectively. Our estimation framework allows a distinction to be made between spillover effects … January 1986 and October 2002. We find that, during the late 1990s, the worldwide importance of European equity markets has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635881
international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response … attract equity inflows in excess of those needed to finance the current account. Upward-biased expectations about prospects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635970