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Interpreting implied risk-neutral densities

Hördahl, Peter; Vestin, David - 2003

This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The … identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs … apllied to German time-series and cross-section term structure data in order to identify both the risk-neutral and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635905

Non-fundamental exchange rate volatility and welfare

Straub, Roland; Tchakarov, Ivan - 2004

We lay out an empirical and a theoretical model to analyze the effects of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility on … of the conditional exogenous exchange rate volatility on the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in our open … empirically. In the second part, we investigate the effect of non-fundamental exchange rate volatility in a stochastic open …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636551

On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635896

Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics

Trigari, Antonella - 2004

general equilibrium model that integrates a theory of equilibrium unemployment into a monetary model with nominal price … application of the minimum distance estimation. The estimated model can explain the cyclical behavior of employment, hours per …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636527

The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis

Christiano, Lawrence; Motto, Roberto; Rostagno, Massimo - 2004

We evaluate the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis that a more accommodative monetary policy could have greatly reduced the severity of the Great Depression. To do this, we first estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model using data from the 1920s and 1930s. Although the model includes eight...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636549

Optimal dynamic risk sharing when enforcement is a decision variable

Koeppl, Thorsten V. - 2003

decision problem of using self-governance for risk sharing or governance through enforcement provided by these institutions … prevent ﬁrst-best risk sharing, but never optimal to provide incentives exclusively via this technology. Commitment problems …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635888

Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing

Castrén, Olli; Miller, Marcus; Stiegert, Roger - 2003

international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response … shock affecting only one country. Efficient global risk-sharing imply that expected productivity gains in one country will … for the productivity gains can further increase the risk exposure of foreign shareholders. The model is calibrated to show …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635970

Risk sharing through financial markets with endogenous enforcement of trades

Köppl, Thorsten V. - 2004

When people share risk in financial markets, intermediaries provide costly enforcement for most trades and, hence, are … an integral part of financial marketsu0092 organization. We assess the degree of risk sharing that can be achieved … allow for optimal risk sharing as long as markets are complete, default is prevented in equilibrium and intermediaries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636542

Forecasting real GDP

Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922

Macroeconomic modelling of monetary policy

Klaeffling, Matt - 2003

prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE models. After introducing this new paradigm I study US monetary policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635920