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Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?

Levin, Andrew T.; Piger, Jeremy M. - 2004

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636705

Autoregressions in small samples, priors about observables and initial conditions

Jarociński, Marek; Marcet, Albert - 2010

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640277

Modelling inflation in the euro area

Jansen, Eilev S. - 2004

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545

On the selection of forecasting models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - 2003

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639853

Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information

González, Andrés; Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo - 2011

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009640913

Why has broad money demand been more stable in the euro area than in other economies?

Calza, Alessandro; Sousa, João - 2003

Based on a literature review, this paper investigates the reasons why broad money demand has usually been found to be more stable in the euro area than in other large economies. The paper concludes that there are three main explanations for this fact. First, in some countries outside the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635916

Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing

Castrén, Olli; Miller, Marcus; Stiegert, Roger - 2003

international equity transactions that accentuate the role of international risk sharing as a factor for the macroeconomic response … shock affecting only one country. Efficient global risk-sharing imply that expected productivity gains in one country will … for the productivity gains can further increase the risk exposure of foreign shareholders. The model is calibrated to show …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635970

Measuring contagion with a Bayesian, time-varying coefficient model

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - 2003

To measure contagion empirically, we propose using a Bayesian time-varying coeﬃcient model estimated with Markov ChainMonte Carlo methods. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635914

Monetary policy analysis in a small open economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VARs

Villani, Mattias; Warne, Anders - 2003

Structural VARs have been extensively used in empirical macroeconomics during the last two decades, particularly in analyses of monetary policy. Existing Bayesian procedures for structural VARs are at best confined to a severly limited handling of cointegration restrictions. This paper extends...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636519

Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo; Ortega, Eva - 2004

, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636535

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