This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

This paper proposes a new paradigm for the analysis of monetary policy. From an econometric point of view this new approach is just as easy to implement as reduced form analysis, but is robust to the Lucas critique. It requires no explicit prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE...

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the U.S. over the...

This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe and reviews options for forests and forestry to adapt to climate change. It has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development...

The FAO report "Livestock long shadow: environmental issues and options" (2006) claims that livestock production is a major contributor to the world's environmental problems, contributing about 18% to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, although highly variable across the world....

This report presents the final results of the study named AVEMAC (Assessing Agriculture Vulnerabilities for the design of Effective Measures for Adaptation to Climate Change). This study has been realized in collaboration of the Actions AGRI4CAST, GeoCAP, AGRI0ENV, and AGRITRADE of the Institute...

Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECBu0092s monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of...