In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations,...

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter...

In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...

The classical APT model is of the form r j - E(r j) = beta j(I - EI) + epsilon j, where r j - E(r j) is the earning deviation (called basic ariance-profit) of the security j, I is a common factor. This paper considers the impact on the securities return caused by the skewness and kurtosis of the...

This study contributes new empirical evidence on the profitability of a momentum strategy in the Philippines equity market. The study was conducted over the time period January 2000 to June 2012. We evaluated a momentum strategy based only on past return information as well as a strategy that...

This study investigated the impact of external debt on economic growth of Tanzania for the period of 1990-2010. The study used time series data on external debt and economic performance. It is assumed that external debt helps developing countries to meet developing needs. While debt servicing...

The paper examines the determinants of inflation in some West African countries. Using the Johansen technique and time series between 1970q1 and 2010q4 the study determines whether inflation in these African countries is mainly imported (via import prices and exchange rate movements) or...

The capacity of input-output tables to reflect the structural peculiarities of an economy and to forecast, on this basis, its evolution, depends essentially on the characteristics of the matrix A—matrix of I-O (or technical) coefficients. However, the temporal behaviour of these coefficients...

This contribution studies the out-of-sample performance of trading strategies applying 2-State-Markov-Switching models. Thereby, different probability thresholds are considered where the investor decides when to go in, respectively, out of the stock market. Furthermore, the investor may decide...