In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

In this study, we treat the seasonal variation in monthly time series in the context of the Western-European tourism demand for Tunisia, by presenting different techniques of detection of seasonality and the parametric and non-parametric approaches of seasonal adjustment. Then, we compare the...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

Das Platzen von spekulativen Preisblasen an den Immobilienmärkten führt oft zu realwirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen, die mit hohen Produktions- und Beschäftigungsverlusten verbunden sind. In diesem Beitrag wird diskutiert, inwieweit institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen das Entstehen und die...

Wird ein Flughafen neu gebaut oder ausgeweitet, steigt die Lärmbelästigung im Umkreis erheblich. Die Preise für Wohnungen und Häuser, die unterhalb der Flugkorridore liegen, sinken in der Folge spürbar. Bereits die Erwartungen bezüglich der künftigen Lärmbelastung können zu deutlichen...

Grey system theory can powerfully deal with incomplete and uncertain information. In this paper, we introduced an improved grey GM(1,1) model that integrates residual modification with Markov chain model. By this model, we improved the forecast accuracy of original grey forecast model and...

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations,...

Company valuation is not done after having generated a few values being a result of applying different valuation methods. In many cases institutions ordering the valuation request a value which can be an equivalent of a market, transactional value. Often the one method (and the valuation...

Fraudulent financial reporting is a matter of great social and economic concern. Managers may distort financial statements so as to present their companies more favorably to investors or creditors. On the other hand, auditors are the ones who are expected to identify fraudulent financial...

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter...