We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

The identification of real estate cycles has always been an important issue in the study of real estate. This paper selected as indicators the Composite Leading Index and Reference Cycle Index regarding the real estate cycles in Taiwan, as they incorporate real estate activities, such as...

Nach den Wahlen im September sind größere Änderungen beim Einkommensteuertarif zu erwarten. Ferner wird häufig gefordert, Familien mit Kindern stärker zu fördern. Aus diesem Anlass hat das DIW Berlin einige Änderungsvorschläge hinsichtlich ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen...

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, 1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different...

We investigate the impact of agent communication networks on prices in an artificial stock market. Networks with different centralization measures are tested for their effect on the volatility of prices. Trading strategies diffuse through the different network topologies, mimetic contagion...

It is systemic to expound how that the speculative behaviors are driven by the number of a series housing policies promulgated by China's government for the real estate market. The market is resulted in full of speculative behaviors, and has been booming since the beginning of this decade, even...

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population ages 25 and older concerning future generosity of state and occupational pensions, the main pillars of the Dutch pension system. We use rotating panel data with monthly observations from 2006 until 2012 on individuals’ subjective expectations...

In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...

Grey system theory can powerfully deal with incomplete and uncertain information. In this paper, we introduced an improved grey GM(1,1) model that integrates residual modification with Markov chain model. By this model, we improved the forecast accuracy of original grey forecast model and...

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations,...