Showing 1 - 10 of 299
This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on … forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation …-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650016
In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011263214
Harry Johnson’s 1971 ideas about the factors affecting the success of the Keynesian Revolution and the Monetarist Counter-revolution are summarised and extended to the analysis of the Rational Expectations - New Classical (RE-NC) Revolution. It is then argued that, whereas Monetarism brought...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835365
of comparable VAR that fails to recognize that the system is characterized by cointegration. I use Monte Carlo simulation … knowledge of cointegration rank. Furthermore the results indicate that a cointegration modeling of credit risk should be favored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622096
of comparable VAR that fails to recognize that the system is characterized by cointegration. I use Monte Carlo simulation … knowledge of cointegration rank. Furthermore the results indicate that a cointegration modeling of credit risk should be favored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789941
Imports represent a relevant component of total economic resources. For the Italian case, they mainly consist of raw materials and intermediate goods. In this paper, we evaluate several econometric models performing shorthorizon forecasts of Italian imports of goods. Year-to-year growth rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005449468
Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also investigated. We examine internal consistency of individual inflation … respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual forecasters deviate systematically from each other. Moreover, inflation … according to the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The results also indicate that inflation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010608054
We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757765
This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989 - 2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rate as suggested by the traditional and Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Three ma- jor ¯ndings stand out: First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593815
Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also investigated. We examine internal consistency of individual inflation … respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual forecasters deviate systematically from each other. Moreover, inflation … according to the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The results also indicate that inflation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011140923